Bartos Group BLOG

The outlook for the real estate market in 2026 can be summed up with one word: steady. In this blog, Mary Bartos with the Bartos Group of Premiere Plus Realty is joined by Cheryl Stokes with New American Funding to explain that Southwest Florida is showing the same measured improvement that national analysts expect—modest price growth, slightly better affordability, and rising inventory—without dramatic swings. For anyone buying, selling, or thinking about moving, steady is good. It means decision-making can be deliberate instead of reactive.

Big-Picture Snapshot: Rates, Prices, Wages

Three factors determine affordability: mortgage rates, home prices, and wages. Analysts agree that none of those three are about to move dramatically in 2026. Mortgage rates are expected to sit in the low sixes, with most forecasters within a couple tenths of current levels. Price growth projections are modest—forecasters range from as low as 0.3 percent to around 4 percent, with the consensus clustering near low-single-digit gains. Wages are rising faster than inflation in many markets, which is the reason affordability is slowly improving.

Put together, these trends create a real estate market where monthly mortgage payments consume a smaller share of household income. One forecast expects the typical monthly payment to fall to about 29.3 percent of median income—below the 30 percent threshold for the first time since 2022. That small shift matters: a few hundred dollars can be the difference between qualifying for a loan or not.

Mortgage Rates: Steady, Not Spectacular

Expect stability rather than a dramatic drop. Most industry projections show rates remaining near current levels. That steady-rate backdrop won’t produce the kind of buying frenzy seen in prior boom years, but it does keep monthly payments predictable for both buyers and sellers planning moves.  

Price Growth and Affordability: Modest Improvement

Price growth in 2026 should be muted and broadly steady. Analysts from national organizations anticipate small gains rather than steep climbs or declines. This is beneficial for buyers because rising wages are beginning to outpace home-price growth in many places, improving purchasing power. The result is a real estate market where more buyers—especially first-time and repeat buyers—can afford homes without the overheated competition of previous boom cycles.

Inventory and the Two-Speed Market

Inventory nationally is trending up after several tight years. Major listing services project nearly a 10 percent increase in active inventory year over year. That increase is not uniform: expect a geographically divided, two-speed real estate market. The Northeast and Midwest typically show tighter conditions with steadier price growth, while many markets in the South and West remain softer.

Southwest Florida functions as a leading indicator in this cycle because of the area’s second-home and seasonal buyer activity. When life events nudge owners to move—retirement, job changes, upsizing, or downsizing—the lock of ultra-low mortgages loosens at the margins and adds more choice for buyers. For people watching inventory and pricing, Southwest Florida often shows movement before other regions.

Florida-Specific Changes to Watch: Homestead, Taxes, Portability

Legislation under consideration could materially affect affordability for Florida homeowners. State-level proposals include phasing out non-school portions of property taxes on homesteaded residences over time, greater protections for homeowners 65 and older, and expanded homestead exemptions. If enacted, these changes would increase Florida’s appeal by lowering recurring housing costs for many owners.

Practical items buyers and current homeowners should note:

• Homestead filing deadline: If you established a new primary residence last year, make sure you applied for homestead protection by the local deadline (typically early March). That benefit caps assessed-value increases and can lower your annual tax bill.
• Portability: Homeowners who move within Florida may be able to transfer some of their homestead benefit to a new primary residence, subject to limits. That can preserve significant tax savings on your next property.
• Local impact: Cities and counties will need to balance any reduction in property-tax revenue. Expect phased or carefully structured changes rather than immediate cuts to services.

Southwest Florida Market Specifics: Sales, Pricing, and Showings

In Southwest Florida, total sales last year landed between levels seen in the two previous years, with a few submarkets outperforming. Inventory is on an upward trend but remains sensitive to seasonal flows and life-event driven moves. Days on market are higher than in peak years; many listings now receive fewer than three showings per month unless they are competitively priced and marketed.

Sellers should be realistic about pricing and presentation. Buyers are well-informed from online listings and social channels, and they expect value. Properties that are properly staged and priced attract the limited pool of active buyers. For buyers, the current market means more choice and time to evaluate options without the urgency of past bidding wars.

Actionable Guidance for Buyers and Sellers

• For buyers: Get preapproved and define your budget with realistic taxes and insurance included. Increased inventory and better affordability mean patience can pay off, but desirable listings still move fast when priced well.
• For sellers: Price to the market and invest in presentation. Prepare for longer marketing windows than during boom years and be ready to negotiate on terms as well as price.
• For homeowners considering a move: Think about homestead benefits and portability before closing; small differences in taxes and rates can materially affect what you can buy next.

Why ‘Steady’ is a Welcome Word

A steady real estate market takes the heat out of decision-making. Buyers get more breathing room to evaluate financing and neighborhoods. Sellers can plan realistic marketing strategies. Lenders and appraisers generally face fewer surprises. For communities like Southwest Florida that depend on a mix of resident and second-home buyers, steadiness creates more predictable movement and gives life events time to naturally free up inventory.

How will mortgage rates affect buying power in 2026?

Mortgage rates are projected to hover in the low sixes, keeping monthly payments relatively stable. Combined with modest wage growth, that stability should improve buying power slightly for many buyers, especially when price growth remains modest.

Is now a good time to sell in Southwest Florida?

Yes, if the move fits your life plan. The market is steady with rising inventory and more balanced conditions. Sellers who price competitively and present homes well will attract the limited pool of active buyers and can still close strong deals.

What should Florida buyers know about homestead exemptions?

Homestead exemptions cap annual assessed-value growth and can lower property taxes significantly. Filing deadlines are early in the year, so new homeowners should apply promptly. Portability rules may allow transferring some savings to a new home, which is valuable when upsizing or downsizing.

Will proposed changes to Florida property taxes make a big difference?

Potentially. Proposals to phase out non-school property taxes on homesteads and expand exemptions would reduce recurring costs for many homeowners. If approved, these changes could increase demand for Florida properties over time, putting upward pressure on prices in some markets.

How should buyers handle limited showings and higher days on market?

Focus on quality over quantity. Use preapproval to strengthen offers, set clear priorities for neighborhood and features, and work with agents who provide timely feedback from showings. Well-priced listings still receive attention; overpriced homes tend to linger.

The real estate market in 2026 looks calm and workable. For buyers and sellers who plan carefully, understand local tax rules, and price properties in line with expectations, this steady environment can be an opportunity rather than a barrier.